To: Board of Supervisors
From: County Administrative Office
Agenda Section: Departmental
SUBJECT:
title
7-Year Financial Forecast
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RECOMMENDATION(S):
Recommendation
That the Board of Supervisors:
1. Receive a staff report on the financial forecast of the county's major funds over the next 7 years.
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SOURCE OF FUNDING:
General Fund, Department of Health & Human Services Fund, Library Fund and Aviation Fund
DISCUSSION:
The County Administrative Office provides the Board quarterly budget reports. Starting in 2013, a 5-year financial forecast report was developed and is intended to provide the Board and public information on trends in anticipated revenues and expenditures for the county's major funds for the next 5 fiscal years. The attached report has been revised to forecast the next 7 years and provides a baseline for measuring future year needs and resources based on current conditions. Ongoing financial uncertainties require financial planning beyond the current single year budget process. Budget decisions made in one year can have significant impacts on resources that are available future years.
This Seven-Year Financial Forecast report covers primarily General Fund forecasts and noteworthy changes or issues with other major funds over the 7-year period. In preparation of the report, a number of publications were referenced to determine economic forecasts at the local, state and federal levels, such as the Congressional Budget Office report, Legislative Analyst Office California Fiscal Outlook, Beaconomics and the Humboldt Economic Index.
Economic indicators for the United States (US), California and Humboldt County predict that the economy will continue to grow, according to federal Congressional Budget Office (CBO), through (FY) 2019-20 and that over a 10-year outlook that growth will average 1.9 percent. Beacon Economics in its Winter 2018 report published a forecast that was "boringly optimistic" because, outside of the rapidl...
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